It is time to make bold predictions. This post will hopefully live up to that credo. So here goes: health care reform will come down to one thing, well 3 things but one thing more than the rest. The governors race in New Jersey is the critical election for the President and the Democrats. Yes, if Christie wins this race, a Republican in a Blue State like New Jersey, health care reform as the Dems envision it will be dealt a critical blow. Virginia’s governors race will also loom large but as Virginia is considered a “Purple” state, the impact of the Republican McDonnell winning will be less negative for Democrats. Lastly, New Yorks, 23rd Congressional race has become something of a lampoon with 2 Republicans(one is dropping out as we speak) running against a single Democrat- a real problem and the same problem in New Jersey-Republicans splitting the vote. In New York though, the “Independent” Republican is actually ahead of the defined candidate and on the heels of the Democratic candidate even with a split vote. All this should be interesting and nerve racking for the Democrats. They stand to lose the most.

For moderate Democrats to see Corzine lose in a blue state will send shivers down their spine. These Dems live in states that vote Republican most of the time and they realize this health care bill is very unpopular amongst their constituents. A vote for liberal Pelosicare could spell the end of their political careers. There is a reason, House Speaker Pelosi wants to vote on a 2000 page bill before the elections take place and anyone can read it. Any losses for Dems will shake her Blue Dogs(and moderate Democrats in the Senate) and they will retreat and demand a more “conservative” bill-one without any public option at all. This will implode her party as the Progressive Caucus will revolt. The old axiom, “Divided they fall” will never be truer. Check out the Senate and Harrycare to see an example of what Pelosi is trying to avoid in her kingdom. So stay tuned and see if this TBM prediction plays out the way it is outlined here.